The following is an opinion article written by John Matley and Bill Mullaney of Deloitte Consulting LLP.

Our latest outlook on the future of mobility argues that powerful trends in vehicle technology and social preferences are poised to remake the future of mobility, and no-one in the mobility ecosystem will be left unchanged – including insurers. Self-driving vehicles and ridesharing will likely upend current car culture and could render widespread personal car ownership an anachronism.

In a transformation as sweeping as the advent of the Model T, the effects are likely to reach far and wide. Today, 94% of traffic accidents are caused by human error, but fully self-driving vehicles could reduce third-party claims frequency by up to 90%.

Shrinking Business

As computers start to replace human drivers, the need for personal auto insurance will shrink dramatically. By 2040, personal auto insurance industry in the US, currently said to be worth $205 billion, is projected to drop to $140 billion. Of the forecast $140 billion in 2040 premiums, approximately $100 billion will be commercial lines products protecting against product liability and commercial auto accidents. The sooner insurance companies adapt, the more likely they are to survive.

New Demand: Not Personal Anymore

How long do car insurers have to make the shift? Safety concerns and tragic accidents

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