According to a 270 To Win map shared on Twitter Friday, President Donald Trump’s latest job approval numbers could mean trouble for his 2020 reelection bid when it comes to the Electoral College.
The tweet posted by Matt Rogers, a Washington consultant and founder of Politidope, awarded each state’s Electoral College votes based on which states reported higher or lower approval ratings of the president. With 270 Electoral College votes required to win the presidency, Rogers’ findings award a Democratic challenger 356 votes, a comfortable 174-vote lead over Trump, were the election to be held today.
While Trump has often been quick to share his job approval numbers (especially among Republicans and especially when they’re provided by Rasmussen), the latest findings from polling company Civiqs report that just 43 percent of the country currently endorses his performance as chief executive.
The map uses Civiqs’ state-by-state breakdown of poll results gathered between January 2017 and October 24, 2019, extrapolating the approval scores to show which states are likely to award their Electoral College votes to Trump versus his eventual Democrat opponent. By observing how the geographic distribution of Trump fans and foes stacks up against the distribution of Electoral College votes, the map may provide a glimpse of the president’s prospects. The visualization is also color-coded by degree of uncertainty, with the states reporting the highest percentage of approval shaded dark red, and more disapproving states depicted in blue.
Notably, only two states, Maine and Nebraska, divvy up their Electoral College votes to align with the popular vote. This means that in the remaining 48 states, a winner-take-all approach leads states with varied electorates to appear uniformly red or blue in national elections.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
In Florida for example, voters appear evenly split, with major party candidates never finishing more than 3 percentage points apart in four of the last five presidential elections, according to data from 270 To Win. (In 2004, then-incumbent President George W. Bush came out 5 percentage points ahead of Democratic opponent John Kerry.) But every four years, Florida awards all of its votes to one candidate.
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Handing down an approval rating of 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving of the president in the last Civiqs’ poll, Rogers’ map narrowly awards the 29 electoral college votes from Florida to a Democrat. Approval ratings notwithstanding, the state is sure to be a battleground in 2020.
Rogers’ map also parallels some recent trends in the American electorate. Texas, for example, long a GOP stronghold, is not among the deep red “safe” states. Instead, it’s a light pink, Trump “leaning” zone, having clocked a 50 percent approval rating of the president, against 47 percent disapproval according to Civiqs. The finding coincides with recent reports that Texas’ shifting demographics may favor more Democrat politicians as young, left-leaning professionals continue moving to the state.
