Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) decision to retire from Congress has set off more alarm bells for Republicans worried about whether they can hold the House in the midterm elections.
The ripple effects of Ryan’s announcement will not be clear for months. But in the early hours after the news broke, some Republicans framed the news as both the latest sign that Republicans are headed for the minority as well as a spark that could set off more GOP retirements.
“It’s just another illustration of the harbinger of things to come. There’s no Republican who’s optimistic about the November elections,” said Terry Sullivan, a GOP strategist who ran Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) presidential campaign. “It’s the 300th example that there is a wave coming.”
Ryan’s retirement had been rumored for months, but the Speaker’s Wednesday announcement caught most in Washington off guard. In a press conference explaining his decision, the House Speaker attempted to brush aside the idea that his retirement would have any impact on the GOP’s chances of retaining the House.
Instead, Ryan framed his decision as a personal one, characterizing himself as a reluctant Speaker who just accomplished a major victory on tax reform and now wants to spend more time with his family.
“I really do not believe that whether I stay or go in 2019 is going to affect a person’s individual race for Congress,” Ryan told reporters.
“If we do our jobs, which we are, we are going to be fine as a majority,“ he said.
Rep. Steve Stivers, the Ohio Republican tasked with running the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), echoed Ryan in a statement, saying that the GOP’s “mission to hold the House” continues “unabated.”
Democrats, buoyed by special election upsets and President Trump’s low approval rating, were already feeling good about their chances of taking back the 23 seats they need to regain the House.
Now they’re framing Ryan’s retirement as more proof that the GOP is bracing for a brutal midterm cycle.
“Speaker Ryan sees what is coming in November, and is calling it quits rather than standing behind [the] House Republican agenda,” said Tyler Law, a spokesman with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in a statement. “Stay tuned for more retirements as Republicans increasingly realize that their midterm prospects are doomed.”
Nonpartisan analysts agree that Ryan’s retirement sends a signal that Republicans will struggle to keep the House.
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst with the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote Wednesday that “many will view Ryan’s retirement as a concession that Republicans are resigned to losing the House in the fall.”
“The Ryan exit is another bad sign for GOP House prospects and a sign that Democrats probably have the inside track for taking control of the House, at least right now,” added Kondik, who still sees the race for the House as a toss-up between the two parties.
