The GOP said cutting taxes would help them in 2018. It didn’t on Tuesday.

Early in their efforts to push through tax reform last year, Republicans insisted the legislation was key to maintaining GOP majorities in Congress. Tax cuts, they said, would be popular enough that Americans would vote to keep Republicans in power.

But Democrats’ shocking upset in Tuesday’s special congressional election in Pennsylvania, in a district where Donald Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016, cast doubt on that argument and further served as a warning sign for the GOP ahead of November.

Public polling on the tax law has improved over the initial numbers. But it became evident a few weeks ago that Republican messaging on the law wasn’t working the way the party hoped. Outside GOP groups, which had poured nearly $11 million into the race ― much of it on advertising the tax law ― suddenly shifted tactics. Instead of touting their signature legislative achievement, Republicans began airing scary-sounding ads about immigrants, and attacking Democrat Conor Lamb’s record as a prosecutor. One GOP ad accused Lamb of allowing “gun runners” to avoid jail time and “walk free.” It’s a well-worn playbook, one that Republicans used to turn out their base last year in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.

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